The Managerial Merry-go-Round

The New year is a time to asses your goals - in life and in football. For me, a late promotion chase for the mighty Gills looks increasingly unlikely, and I am therefore reassessing my goals; staving away the threat of relegation is now the realistic aim. However, as we all look to 2010 its time to reflect on those who have not made it this far. Of course, for us any managerial post in professional football is a distant dream, but for those in the game it’s still just their job, and like anyone losing their job over the festive period you have to feel for them. Nevertheless, there’s little time for sentiment… I will be discussing the logic, or lack of, that has seen many men recently receive their P45, thus sparking the inevitable managerial merry-go-round.

Loyalty is an often referred to dying breed in a game that has become more of a business than a sport in the last decade. With so much money at stake throughout all levels of the game, results speak volumes and bad results mean the sack. Of course, loyalty can be a poison chalice, as Middlesbrough fans will no doubt vouch for. They had to witness Steve Gibson’s devotion to his inexperienced appointment, Gareth Southgate, lead them to the championship. As they sit 11th in the second tier of English football only 3 years after a European final appearance, Boro fans and their fiercely loyal chairman must wonder whether wielding the axe this time last year would have left them in better stead. Hindsight… However, although I am not a fan of the proverbial panic button and I believe the success of the likes of Ferguson, Wenger and Moyes warrants such a view, I do believe now is as good a time as any to change the hierarchy in a football club. With the transfer window imminent, clubs have just 4 weeks to wheel and deal in an attempt to improve their chances of achieving their goals. So if the board are not 100 per cent behind the man in charge, there seems little logic in letting him be the man to loosen the purse strings and potentially further stricken the football club.

Gary Megson is the latest man to lose his job, following the Premier League dismissals of Mark Hughes and Paul Hart. In the Championship, Alan Irvine finds himself out of work at Preston, as the latest of a staggering 8 managerial changes in the League. Perhaps the dismissal of the ex-Forest, West brom and Leicester (amongst others) boss leaves the football world far less shocked, and dare I say less interested than the sacking of Mark Hughes. Bolton fans certainly don’t seem sad to see the back of him and although Phil Gartside sited the club’s precarious league position as the reason behind Megson’s sacking, the fact that he had failed to ever gain the backing of the Bolton faithful would have played a major role. It’s difficult to judge this dismissal; Bolton were in an almost identical position when Megson took over and the more prudent football fan would suggest this means he’s done a good job. Would Bolton fans have taken this 2 years ago when Megson took over from Sammy Lee with the club destined for the championship? Yes would be my guess, but inevitably the expectations of the football club have increased despite the sale of Nicolas Anelka. Phil Gartside has gambled with the transfer window in mind and has a big, big appointment to make. Paul Jewell would be an ideal man to bring in given his experience, although I believe stagnation under Megson will lead to relegation under his successor.

Paul Hart recently made way for Avram Grant at Portsmouth and jumped on the merry-go-round to take up the stability of a managerial job at QPR. While every man and his dog at Pompey was busy denying that Grant had been lined up to replace Hart, Harry Redknapp was busy on Sky Sports saying he’d be “very surprised” if Avram didn’t take the job. Good old Harry- he’s been in football too long to believe any of that bullshit. So Hart heads for the circus that is the R’s under Briatore, in serious danger of getting his fingers burnt again, and Grant takes on mission impossible. Still, I bet Paul Hart is happy to see his pay cheque this week.

So, the managerial merry-go-round continues. And who are we to specualte who could be next. Well, lets finish off with what the bookies have to say:

Phil Brown 5/2
Gianfranco Zola 5/1
Rafa Benitez 6/1
David Moyes 10/1
Mick McCarthy 11/1
Harry Redknapp 14/1
Avram Grant 14/1
Sam Allardyce 20/1
Owen Coyle 33/1
Tony Pulis 33/1
Steve Bruce 33/1
Roberto Mancini 33/1
Alex McLeish 33/1
Carlo Ancelotti 50/1
Roy Hodgson 66/1
Arsene Wenger 66/1
Martin O’Neill80/1
Alex Ferguson 100/1

Thank God that English football has no Christmas break...

    Christmas time means different things to different people. To some it is about friends, others family, to many drinking, presents or charity. Over-consumption is a popular theme and football is no different to chocolates, mince pies or mulled wine. Between Boxing day and the 3rd of January, we have a staggering fixture list to feast on. 135 games, made up of 20 Premier League matches, 24 in the Championship, 27 in League 1, 32 in League 2 and an extra 32 games with the guaranteed white-knuckle ride that is the 3rd round of the FA cup should leave us all (almost) satisfied. By the 3rd, when the fixture list starts to settle down again, we will all have a much better idea of how our teams seasons are looking. Today I plan to have a little talk about which teams are on a precipice, the fine line between success and failure, and pick out a few for whom this Christmas really is ‘make or break’.

    The temptation to carry on talking about Man City or Liverpool (who could be out of every competition bar the Europa League 3 days into 2010) is massive, but I have decided to resist. Instead, we are going to have a little look a couple of teams who you might not instantly think associate with danger, but for whom a dodgy Christmas could seriously jeopardise very promising starts.

    Lets start in the Premiership, where for me, one of the teams most reliant on coming through Christmas unscathed are Sunderland. Steve Bruce, indisputably an excellent manager, managed to make the Black Cats a tough side to beat for the first month or so of the season. The form of Darren Bent in particular turned the Stadium of Light into a place no-one fancied visiting, and top half clubs like Birmingham City,  Liverpool and Arsenal have lost there, whilst Man Utd couldn’t beat them at Old Trafford. Their upcoming fixtures. a home tie versus Everton, a trip to Ewood Park and non-League Barrow in the FA Cup all look like very winnable games, but Sunderland’s form is abysmal - they have only recorded 1 win since 17th October. This coincides with the absence of influential midfielder Lee Cattermole, who returned on Saturday against Man City in a game that the Black Cats were unlucky to come out of without at least a point. They are sitting in 10th place with 21 points - interestingly the exact same amount as at this stage of last season. That year, they only won 15 more points after Christmas and finished in 16th place, only two clear of relegated Newcastle. In 2010 they must strive to ensure they do not capitulate to the same extent, and this kicks off on Boxing Day against Everton.

    The next side who’s Christmas period I have identified as particularly crucial are Nottingham Forest. 3rd place in the Championship may seem like a dream come true, even for those fans who remember the glory days, but now is the time that Billy Davies’ side must start believing that they deserve to be where they are. Especially as the clubs beneath them, particularly Cardiff, will fancy their chances of picking off the Reds in the second half of the season. This Forest side  are relatively inexperienced in the search for promotion out of the league, only finishing in the Championship play-off positions once since 2000 and securing safety in the latter stages of last season. Therefore, it is crucial for Forest to capitalise away at Watford and at home to Coventry, as Cardiff will be looking for 6 points in games against the bottom two teams in the league. As I previously mentioned, Billy Davies has repeatedly talked down his team this year. However, wins against Boro, Newcastle, Swansea and Preston to name but 4 prove that his side deserve to be where they are. Maybe now is the time for Billy, shrewd man that he is, to start talking up his side and push for an automatic spot rather than risk the lottery of the playoffs.

    Anyway, every football fan in the country will have 3 points on Boxing Day top of the Christmas list. Although the clubs I have picked out find themselves in particular situations, I doubt anyone will be feeling too charitable come kick off on the 26th. Barring any major developments in the football world tomorrow, I will update again on Christmas or Boxing Day- Merry Christmas one and all!


P.S. I thought this made interesting reading, the Daily Mail‘s Premier League “Improvement Table“…

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1237746/Second-best-Manchester-City-sack-boss-rock-Liverpool-persist-Rafa-Spurs-Premier-League-improvement-table.html